Tanzania

Tanzania

Tanzania, like much of Africa, is a relatively young nation-state. Before colonial times, the region was an indefinite area of tribes, each with their own culture, language, and leadership. Outside domination was initially Arabic, and later European. This is reflected today with a population of 40% Muslim and 40% Christian. Slave trade was a major factor during the Arabic rule, and tribes were set against each other. Portuguese and German rule was not much better, focused mostly on exploiting the people and natural wealth of the region (gold, diamonds). The British were at least able to stop the slave trading.

The First World War saw no real change in the area, although the colonial possessions were re-divided among the winners. However, after the Second World War, things were considerably different. Much as the difference between the treaty of Versailles (which was so unfair to Germany that many historians believe it led to the second World War) and the Marshall Plan (which helped rebuild Germany), after the second World War much of the colonial possessions were designated as UN protectorates, for the creation of independent nation-states.

Tanzania was unique in that it established a stable government which united the tribes. Julius Nyerere led socialist Tanzania for its first twenty years. He is criticized in the west for his authoritarian rule and poor economic policies; however he succeeded in creating one state where there was none. He mandated Kiswahili as the common language, usurping the power and authority of the tribes. An idealist, he patterned his government on ideas of African village society, which resembled small-scale communism. He blended those traditions with Marxist, Chinese, and Biblical ideas. He mandated free education, racial harmony, economic co-operation, and self-sacrifice. He was fanatical about equanimity and equality. Nyerere became a leader in the non-aligned world, especially Africa. For example, he was key in ousting the brutal dictator Idi Amin.

Nyerere's methods were not always pleasant. His policies dictated the forced relocation of many peoples. Many of the leading intellectual and educated people such as doctors fled to Europe, leaving Tanzania without knowledge and without capital.

The cold war was devastating to Africa. Each side supported brutal dictators, undermining democracy and spurning economic development. As Kissinger says in his classic textbook on Foreign Policy, stability was the number one goal. Both the USA and USSR felt a strong military leader was more stable than a democracy. The nation-building that started at the conclusion of the Second World War quickly was replaced by bad governments. (Not unlike US policy still in the mid-east, where we support Saudi and Kuwaiti dictatorships, even while saying we promote democracy).

Tanzania was one of few countries to remain un-aligned, and escape cold-war dictatorships (although Nyerere was authoritarian also). In the 1980's Tanzania moved into the next stage of nation-building, allowing multi-party government. This led to the reduction of state-owned business, fighting corruption, and the gradual creation of a private sector. The path has been very painful, with a decade of inflation rates of around 30%. For the past ten years, the economy has gradually stabilized and grown. Inflation is now down, and the GNP growth is 5% annually. But the country has remained intact.

The Tanzanian economy is largely agricultural, with coffee, tea, cloves, cotton, sisal, and cashews. Tourism is a tiny but growing segment, and provides hard currency. The National Parks and Reserves were created starting in the 50's and especially the 70's, and only recently are beginning to draw significant tourism.

Historically, Tanzania is the merger of Tanganyika and Zanzibar. Zanzibar has always been the reluctant partner, and still flounders. For example, the 1990's elections in Zanzibar were fraught with violence and corruption.

Today, Tanzania has free education for all, a growing economy, 25% of the land protected in parks and nature reserves, and a stable, democratic government.

While that all sounds good, the reality is still bleak. Only 50% of the population attends primary school (grades 1-8). Secondary school (9-12), which is not free and is conducted only in English, is attended by fewer than 10% of the population, virtually all boys.

The economy, while stable and growing, still has 16% unemployment and virtually 100% underemployment. Many jobs are just a couple of hours a day. 80% of the population works in agriculture, virtually all small-scale subsistence farming. Actual cash income averages just $260 per year. Barriers to development still remain. There is little transportation or financial infrastructure. For farmers, there are no price structures, and even the cash payment for crops is unreliable.

A bigger tragedy awaits. 15-25% of Tanzanians have HIV, mostly affecting the productive population age. Projections of population are startling: HIV alone has reduced the life expectancy from 61 to just 46 years. The future population will consist largely of the aged and orphaned children. Much of the productive age group will be wiped out. This future impact cannot be overstated.

Put this against the backdrop that Tanzania is one of the most successful countries in Africa, and you can understand the despair in this part of the world. By African standards, Tanzania is stable, democratic, relatively prosperous, and even a bit below average HIV infection rate. This is an area of the world that demands serious attention. Many of the problems trace to colonial times, and then to the cold war.

Economic policies continue to suppress development. Over half of all European Union expenses are subsidies to farmers, and the US farm bill this year was $14 billion. These policies of the developed world suppress agriculture in Africa. At the recent World Summit in Johannesburg (attended by all world leaders except the US), the African leadership insisted that the solution is not more food aid and more loans, but instead a relaxation of trade restrictions, allowing the Africans to compete in agriculture.

Many Tanzanians are remarkably well educated. I talked with one about the current world situation, and asked what the effect of US policy is to him. His answer was quick, and crystal clear: if Bush goes into Iraq, tourism to Tanzania stops and the economy loses all of the gains of the past twenty years. He and most of his friends will be out of work, essentially overnight, and there is no safety net. This does seem to me an extremely counterproductive way to fight the seeds of terrorism.